What win rate do I need to pass a prop firm challenge?

It depends on your reward to risk, your risk per trade and the firm's limits together, which is why this is a simulation and not a single number. A higher win rate with a small reward can pass less often than a lower one with a larger reward.

Does risking more per trade help?

Up to a point. Larger trades reach the profit target in fewer wins, and they reach the daily limit and the maximum loss in fewer losses. The calculator shows where that turns.

Why does the daily loss limit matter so much?

Because it is checked every day and losses come in runs. A trader taking several trades a day will see a run long enough to breach it far more often than intuition suggests.

Is STS Trading a prop firm?

No. STS Trading is trading software. It does not sell evaluations or provide capital.

Free calculator

Prop challenge pass probability calculator

This calculator simulates thousands of attempts at a prop firm challenge from your win rate, your reward to risk and your risk per trade, under the challenge's own rules. It returns the share that pass, the share that fail on the maximum loss or the daily limit, and the typical number of days a pass takes.

Last updated 30 September 2026.

Challenge pass probability

Challenge typeMaximum lossPhase 1 profit target%Phase 2 profit target%Maximum loss%Daily loss limit (empty if none)%Minimum trading days per phaseYour win rate%Reward for each 1 riskedRisk per trade%Trades per dayTrading days allowed

Chance of passing90.1%

Failed on the maximum loss6.0%

Failed on the daily limit0.0%

Still running when the days ran out3.9%

Cleared phase 195.7%

Typical trading days to pass22

Attempts per pass, on average1.1

How many challenges this trader would buy, on average, for each one passed.

5,000 simulated attempts. Every trade risks the same share of the starting balance, wins the same multiple and is independent of the last. Real trading is none of those exactly, so read this as how the rules behave, not as a forecast.

How to use it

Enter the challenge's rules as percentages of the starting balance: the profit target for each phase, the maximum loss and the daily loss limit.
Enter your own numbers honestly: the win rate and reward to risk from your real record, not the ones you hope for.
Change the risk per trade and watch the pass rate. It rises with risk up to a point and then falls, because larger trades reach the target sooner and reach the loss limits sooner too.

How the rules are applied

After each trade, the balance is checked against the maximum loss. A fixed maximum loss is measured from the starting balance. A trailing one follows the highest balance reached.
At the end of each day, the day's loss is checked against the daily limit.
A phase is passed when the target is reached and the minimum trading days are met. A second phase starts from a fresh balance.
An attempt that runs out of days without passing or failing is counted as still open, not as either.

What it leaves out

Every simulated trade risks the same share of the starting balance, wins the same multiple and is independent of the one before. Real trades come in streaks, vary in size and cluster around the same market conditions, all of which make a daily limit bite more often than this shows. Treat the result as the best case for your numbers.

Each firm's rules differ in detail, and many restrict automated trading. Read the firm's own terms; this models the common rules, not any one firm's.

A calculator shows what follows from the numbers you enter. It is not a forecast and not personal financial advice. Trading carries risk and you can lose money.

Prop challenge pass probability calculator

How to use it

How the rules are applied

What it leaves out

More calculators

Questions worth asking.

Know your numbers before you pay for an attempt.