Break-even win rate calculator
The break-even win rate is the share of trades you must win for a given reward to risk to make nothing and lose nothing. It is risk divided by reward plus risk: at 2 to 1 it is 33.3%, at 1 to 1 it is 50%, and at 1 to 2 it is 66.7%. Trading costs raise it.
Last updated 30 September 2026.
Before trading costs. The spread raises it.
How many trades at this win rate before the evidence clears break-even with 95% confidence.
The ladder
| Reward to risk | Break-even win rate |
|---|---|
| 3 to 1 | 25.0% |
| 2 to 1 | 33.3% |
| 1.5 to 1 | 40.0% |
| 1 to 1 | 50.0% |
| 1 to 1.5 | 60.0% |
| 1 to 2 | 66.7% |
| 1 to 3 | 75.0% |
Why a high win rate proves nothing alone
Taking profit early raises the win rate and lowers the reward, which raises the win rate needed. A system that wins 70% of the time with a reward half the size of its risk is below break-even. The two numbers only mean something together.
What the spread does to it
Every trade pays the spread, which makes each win a little smaller and each loss a little larger. That moves break-even up, and it moves it most where stops are tight. On fast charts the difference is large enough to turn a winning record into a losing one.
A calculator shows what follows from the numbers you enter. It is not a forecast and not personal financial advice. Trading carries risk and you can lose money.
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