How many trades make a win rate
We compared each setup's win rate over the last month with its win rate over the full 1 year record, for 709 strategy and market pairs on 15 minute charts. Where the month held fewer than 10 trades, the two differed by a median of 14.9 points, and 65% were 10 points or more apart. With 120 or more trades the median gap was 2.2 points.
Last updated 30 September 2026. Figures from the scanner run of 2026-11-01, 15 minute candles, market data through 2026-11-01.
Same rule, same market, fewer trades
| Trades in the month | Setups | Median gap from the full record | 10 points or more apart |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 10 trades | 68 | 14.9 points | 65% |
| 10 to 29 | 183 | 6.7 points | 34% |
| 30 to 59 | 97 | 4.5 points | 10% |
| 60 to 119 | 79 | 3.8 points | 3% |
| 120 or more | 282 | 2.2 points | 1% |
Nothing about the strategy changed between the two columns being compared. The rule, the market, the timeframe and the target are identical. The only difference is how many trades the percentage was worked out from.
Why this matters when you read a win rate
A win rate is an estimate, and its accuracy depends on the number of trades behind it. Seven wins from ten trades and 700 from 1,000 both print as 70%, and they are not the same claim. The first is consistent with a rule that really wins about half the time.
- STS Trading marks any record under 30 trades as thin, wherever it appears, and never grades it as a strong edge.
- Every percentage in the terminal is printed beside the number of trades it came from.
- Intraday records are a rolling window, so a thin setup's win rate will move from one nightly run to the next without anything being wrong.
A short window can also differ from a long one because the market really has changed. This table cannot tell those two causes apart, and neither can a trader looking at one month of results. That is the point.
- Win rate confidence calculator
Enter trades and wins; get the range and whether it clears break-even.